43 Lessons from the book "Winning Decisions: Getting It Right The First Time"

Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time

By J. Edward Russo, Paul J.H. Schoemaker

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1. Your best hope for a good outcome is a good decision process followed by good implementation
2. Before plugging in, take time for an initial assessment i which you ask yourself how kind of decision should be made
3. The perspectives through which we view the world limit the decision-making options we can see and influence how effectively we can communicate and " sell" those options to others
4. " Frames"- Mental structures that simplify and guide our understanding of a complex reality - Force us to view the world from a particular and limited perspective 
5. When we forget that our frame does not capture all of reality , we can be lulled into thinking that our decision-making perspective is more complete that it really is
6. The way we frame a problem exerts enormous control over the options we recognize and the solutions we choose
7. Frames draw our attention to certain aspects of a problem while leaving others in the shadows , hidden from our view
8. A frame' boundaries may leave the best options (or some options' consequences) so far in the shadows that we miss them altogether
9. The frame - and the yardsticks- you use may dramatically bias how you interpret information and what conclusion you reach
10. Metaphors, when chosen carefully , can highlight important facet of a situation.But when one metaphor is used indiscriminately to frame all decisions, it limits the options that can be seen,possibly excluding the best ones from consideration
11. Interpersonal conflicts are often rooted in unidentified frame differences 
12. Since no one frame is complete , a new frame that blends elements from several different frames is likely too result in stronger decisions.
13. New highlights can be drawn from the shadows by taking an "outside" perspective
14. Good decision-making requires not only knowing that facts , but understanding the limit of our knowledge
15. A poor sense of what one does  - and does not - know  posses as much danger to decision makers as does limited knowledge of a subject
16. Separate "deciding from "doing" . Be a realist when deciding ;confine optimism to implementation
17. Don't be too quick to take " yes" for an answer. Make it a habit to seek evidence that disprove your favorite theory or desired outcome . Always consider and test multiple hypothesis
18. Our perceptions of the "fact" are often distorted by the most available , most recent , or most vivid information
19. readily available (but not necessarily relevant) numbers or ideas distort our final judgement because people fail to adjust away from them sufficiently.
20. Never pretend uncertainty is smaller than it is . Reduce uncertainty as far as you can , then  manage it
21. Confidence-range estimates can be more useful to decision makers than a numerically exact (but not exactly correct)single-point prediction
22. Feedback and accountability can teach people to develop a sharper sense of how much they do-and do not -know
23. Rather than trying to pick the one " most-certain" future , preserve inherent uncertainty by generating multiple views of the future and trying to expect the unexpected
24. The successes of intuitive choice are exaggerated and its risks greatly under-appreciated 
25. Those who don't recognize the nature of their rules- and the biases inherent in them- will sooner or later pay the price of ignorance
26. Models produced by bootstrapping - using the best judgments of experts to create a systematic model - nearly always outperforms the experts themselves
27. Choose the simplest technique you can - without sacrificing reliability. Remember , however, that the different methods process and weight information differently- and will often lead to different conclusions
28. Teams , on average , make better decisions than individuals . but some of the absolute worst decisions are also made by groups
29. Too little conflict is as dangerous to a decision-making group as too much conflict
30. How well conflict is managed determines whether decision making groups fail or succeed. 
31. Moderate task conflict and low relationship conflict is  the decision making ideal.Only then are groups likely to outperform individuals
32. For divergent views to emerge in a group,leaders must signal that conflict is truly welcomed 
33. For emerging signs of success or failure to be used to refine a decision , a project monitoring plan with clear milestones and review points is crucial.
34. Experience is knowing what happened. Learning is knowing why it happened
35. Learning is not automatic. it requires a systematic examination of our experience 
36. To succeed , whatever your organizational position, re-frame yourself as both a "performer" and a " learner"
37. Don't ignore information on outcomes you already possess- both good and bad.
38. Beware of the tendency to inflate the contributions made by your skill when things turn out well and to over-attribute failure to chance when they don't.
39. When we don't capture information on the results of our actions- those options we passed over as well as those we chose- we never learn whether our decision rules are worth all that much
40. In many cases, we influence the outcomes of our decision through subsequent actions. This makes the quality of the decision themselves hard to judge
41. Experiments can help us learn from experience when we cant directly track the path not traveled or separate the impact of the decision from its implementation . Experiments can create the needed experience 
42. To create a learning organization , leaders must create an environment in which people are not punished for making honest mistakes , but rather only for failing to learn from their mistakes
43. Real learning requires you to become a participant-observer in your own environment . Even if you don't control rewards across the entire organization, you can create an effective learning environment within your own sphere.