Your best hope for a good outcome is a good decision process followed by good implementation
Before plugging in, take time for an initial assessment i which you ask yourself how kind of decision should be made
The perspectives through which we view the world limit the decision-making options we can see and influence how effectively we can communicate and " sell" those options to others
" Frames"- Mental structures that simplify and guide our understanding of a complex reality - Force us to view the world from a particular and limited perspective
When we forget that our frame does not capture all of reality , we can be lulled into thinking that our decision-making perspective is more complete that it really is
The way we frame a problem exerts enormous control over the options we recognize and the solutions we choose
Frames draw our attention to certain aspects of a problem while leaving others in the shadows , hidden from our view
A frame' boundaries may leave the best options (or some options' consequences) so far in the shadows that we miss them altogether
The frame - and the yardsticks- you use may dramatically bias how you interpret information and what conclusion you reach
Metaphors, when chosen carefully , can highlight important facet of a situation.But when one metaphor is used indiscriminately to frame all decisions, it limits the options that can be seen,possibly excluding the best ones from consideration
Interpersonal conflicts are often rooted in unidentified frame differences
Since no one frame is complete , a new frame that blends elements from several different frames is likely too result in stronger decisions.
New highlights can be drawn from the shadows by taking an "outside" perspective
Good decision-making requires not only knowing that facts , but understanding the limit of our knowledge
A poor sense of what one does - and does not - know posses as much danger to decision makers as does limited knowledge of a subject
Separate "deciding from "doing" . Be a realist when deciding ;confine optimism to implementation
Don't be too quick to take " yes" for an answer. Make it a habit to seek evidence that disprove your favorite theory or desired outcome . Always consider and test multiple hypothesis
Our perceptions of the "fact" are often distorted by the most available , most recent , or most vivid information
readily available (but not necessarily relevant) numbers or ideas distort our final judgement because people fail to adjust away from them sufficiently.
Never pretend uncertainty is smaller than it is . Reduce uncertainty as far as you can , then manage it
Confidence-range estimates can be more useful to decision makers than a numerically exact (but not exactly correct)single-point prediction
Feedback and accountability can teach people to develop a sharper sense of how much they do-and do not -know
Rather than trying to pick the one " most-certain" future , preserve inherent uncertainty by generating multiple views of the future and trying to expect the unexpected
The successes of intuitive choice are exaggerated and its risks greatly under-appreciated
Those who don't recognize the nature of their rules- and the biases inherent in them- will sooner or later pay the price of ignorance
Models produced by bootstrapping - using the best judgments of experts to create a systematic model - nearly always outperforms the experts themselves
Choose the simplest technique you can - without sacrificing reliability. Remember , however, that the different methods process and weight information differently- and will often lead to different conclusions
Teams , on average , make better decisions than individuals . but some of the absolute worst decisions are also made by groups
Too little conflict is as dangerous to a decision-making group as too much conflict
How well conflict is managed determines whether decision making groups fail or succeed.
Moderate task conflict and low relationship conflict is the decision making ideal.Only then are groups likely to outperform individuals
For divergent views to emerge in a group,leaders must signal that conflict is truly welcomed
For emerging signs of success or failure to be used to refine a decision , a project monitoring plan with clear milestones and review points is crucial.
Experience is knowing what happened. Learning is knowing why it happened
Learning is not automatic. it requires a systematic examination of our experience
To succeed , whatever your organizational position, re-frame yourself as both a "performer" and a " learner"
Don't ignore information on outcomes you already possess- both good and bad.
Beware of the tendency to inflate the contributions made by your skill when things turn out well and to over-attribute failure to chance when they don't.
When we don't capture information on the results of our actions- those options we passed over as well as those we chose- we never learn whether our decision rules are worth all that much
In many cases, we influence the outcomes of our decision through subsequent actions. This makes the quality of the decision themselves hard to judge
Experiments can help us learn from experience when we cant directly track the path not traveled or separate the impact of the decision from its implementation . Experiments can create the needed experience
To create a learning organization , leaders must create an environment in which people are not punished for making honest mistakes , but rather only for failing to learn from their mistakes
Real learning requires you to become a participant-observer in your own environment . Even if you don't control rewards across the entire organization, you can create an effective learning environment within your own sphere.